Author’s Note: When I wrote VVV yesterday, I said that the AI track is quietly enjoying a “second spring.” Unexpectedly, in the early morning of the next day, NEAR gave me a slap in the face – it is not the story of the application layer, it is the story of the infrastructure layer. It pulled 10% in one day, rebounded 27% in seven days, the trading volume doubled, and the market value returned to the Top 50. I have been following NEAR for three years, and this wave of growth is completely different from the previous rhythm of being “dragged along by Meme emotions”. In today’s article, I will explain the logic, data, risks, and how ordinary people should view this round of NEAR.
Directory
- Let’s talk about the conclusion first: What exactly has NEAR gained in this wave
- Data review: split into three dimensions: 24 hours, 7 days, and 30 days
- Storyline 1: Why does the narrative of AI-native L1 start now
- Storyline 2: Chain Abstraction—NEAR’s most underrated weapon
- Storyline 3: “L1 survivor” who was revalued by the organization
- Technical: $1.3 is the bottom, $1.67 is the current ceiling
- Risk warning: Don’t regard rebound as the starting point of a bull market
- The operating rhythm of ordinary people: three positions, three mentality
- FAQ
- Conclusion
1. Let’s talk about the conclusion first: What exactly did NEAR rise in this wave?
The author first throws out the data from this early morning to avoid being carried away by the narrative:
- Current price: $1.67 (as of 2026-05-13 10:00 Beijing time)
- 24-hour increase: +10.0% (the only one among the Top 50, ZEC+4.2%, BNB+2.1% are both left behind)
- 7-day gain: +27% (rebounded from May 6 low of $1.31 to $1.67)
- 30-day increase: +22%
- Trading volume: $371 million, 30-day average volume $180 million, enlarged to 106%
- Market capitalization: $2.16 billion, back to the Top 50 (up from the Top 60 last week)
- ATH: $20.44 (January 2022), 12x short of all-time high
- 1 year performance: -46.8%
Did you see the last line? It hasn’t paid back yet. But what is provided in the short term is something that many old L1s cannot provide.
In this round of rise, the author breaks it down into three true narratives:
- AI track narrative “spreads from application layer to infrastructure layer”
- NEAR’s “Chain Abstraction” Intents technology stack has entered the stage of implementation
- CoinDesk this week named “BTC bull-bear cycle indicator turning green for the first time since March 2023” – risk aversion has loosened, and rotating funds have begun to look for L1 that has not yet risen.
The superposition of these three is the answer to why NEAR is today. Rather than such a crude sentence as “AI project pull-up”.
2. Data review: split into three dimensions: 24 hours, 7 days, and 30 days
It makes no sense to just look at the 24-hour increase. I have been a veteran for a long time, and I am used to stacking three timelines to look at them.
2.1 24 hours: heavy volume start
| index | numerical value | meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1.67 | Breaking through the resistance level since May |
| 24h increase | +10.0% | Top 50 first |
| 24h trading volume | $371 million | Average daily amplification of 106% |
| 24h fluctuation low point | $1.60 | Around 02:00 in the morning |
| 24h fluctuation high point | $1.67 | Just released at 10 a.m. Beijing time |
Characteristics of this trend: It is not the Meme kind of “pull it up and then smash it”, but new highs every hour, and the volume can be amplified simultaneously. I took a screenshot of CoinGecko’s minute-level data. From 22:00 last night to 02:00 this morning, the price climbed every hour, and the trading volume climbed from $310 million to $340 million. This is real money buying, not a market maker’s own thing.
2.2 7 days: Pulling out from the bottom
- Low on May 6: $1.31
- Current price on May 13: $1.67
- Rebound margin: +27.5%
What was the status of NEAR 7 days ago? The author looked through his trading records – on May 5, I placed a small order at $1.32, but it was not completed. At that time, I thought, “If I can’t hold it anymore, I’ll close it.” However, on May 6, it directly broke through $1.31, and I stopped 1% of my position. Looking back now, that is the bottom of this round.
2.3 30 days: The real turning point is mid-April
The increase on the 30th was +22%, which may not seem like much, but the key is the form:
- Mid-April: Sideways near $1.35
- End of April: As low as $1.25
- Early May: $1.30 repeatedly bottomed out
- May 6: The lower shadow line hit $1.31, and the trading volume on that day was the largest in the past two weeks
- May 6th – May 13th: Seven consecutive positive days, all the way to $1.67
This is a typical “stepping out of the bottom” pattern – the lower shadow line increases volume, and then continues to rebound. Rather than the dead-cat jump of “if it rises a little, it will be smashed”.
2.4 Circulation market capitalization perspective: What level is $2.16 billion?
- FDV (full circulation market capitalization): $2.16 billion
- Circulation volume: 1.295 billion coins
- Total amount: 1.295 billion pieces
- No unlocked whale chips (NEAR’s pledge release rhythm is very smooth)
Compare the same track:
| project | Market value | Last 7 days | Last 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEAR | $2.16 billion | +27% | +22% |
| SUI | $8.8 billion | +27% | +37% |
| ICP | $2.4 billion | +16% | +32% |
| RENDER | $1 billion | +2% | +2% |
NEAR’s market value is only 1/4 of SUI, but the 7-day increase is the same. If the AI L1 track continues this round, NEAR will obviously be more flexible.
3. Storyline 1: Why does the narrative of AI-native L1 start now?
NEAR officially changed its slogan from “Scalable Blockchain” to “The Blockchain for AI” – this will be at the end of 2025. At that time, the author’s reaction was “another one trying to bully AI”. It wasn’t until I read its white paper update that I realized that NEAR was serious about it this time.
3.1 NEAR’s AI three-piece set
The official document summarizes “Why NEAR is suitable for AI” into three points. The author translates them in human language:
- User-Owned AI: The user’s data, identity, and intentions are all under his control. The AI Agent does things for you but does not take your wallet private key.
- Intents & Chain Abstraction: You say “I want to buy ETH on Polygon”, and the system will help you cross chains, find liquidity, and sign transactions. You only need to say the result
- Sharded Architecture: NEAR’s native sharding can process tens of thousands of transactions at the same time, leaving room for AI Agents to run cyclic tasks
This three-piece set itself is not new, but packaged together, it happens to be the most missing piece of the puzzle for the implementation of AI Agent in 2026**.
3.2 Why is it happening now?
The author believes that there are three catalysts:
Catalyst 1: ElizaOS, Arc, Eternal AI and other AI Agent frameworks integrate NEAR Intents
In the past six months, the author has tracked four mainstream open source AI Agent frameworks on GitHub. Two of them listed “NEAR Chain Abstraction” as the “default cross-link access layer” in the 2026 Q1 roadmap. This means that in the future, AI Agent will help users perform cross-chain operations, and the underlying API will be adjusted by NEAR.
Catalyst 2: DeepSeek V4 and Qwen3 will be released in Q2 of 2026, and Agent demand will explode
There is a consensus in the AI circle in 2026 – “large model armaments” have slowed down, and real growth lies in “Agent implementation“. For Agent to be implemented, two things cannot be avoided: payment and cross-chain. NEAR does both.
Catalyst 3: VVV samples the market
As mentioned in my VVV article yesterday, Venice Token rose 89% in a week, drawing market attention back to the AI sector. Coins in the infrastructure layer usually lag the launch of the application layer by 1-2 weeks – In the DeFi Summer of 2021, it is also the same reason that after YFI finishes rising, it will be AAVE’s turn, and then SNX’s turn.
3.3 TVL and activity data of AI track
The author has compiled the 30-day TVL changes of the core chain of the AI track (data source: DefiLlama):
| chain | 30-day TVL changes | Active address changes within 30 days |
|---|---|---|
| NEAR | +38% | +52% |
| Base | +21% | +18% |
| Sonic | +94% | +67% |
| Sui | +56% | +41% |
NEAR’s TVL growth rate is not the most dramatic, but the active addresses increased by 52% This data is critical – it shows that new users are coming in, not old money changing positions on their own.
The author would like to make a digression here: The most criticized thing about NEAR from 2022 to 2024 is that “users cannot stay” – one group comes after each airdrop, and another group leaves after the airdrop ends. The increase in active addresses this time is not driven by airdrops (the NEAR Foundation did not have large-scale incentive activities in May), but by real calls brought about by AI Agent integration. This is a qualitative change. The user retention rate of a chain jumps from 20% to more than 50%, which means that it has changed from a “wool tool” to an “everyday scenario”. This is the most precious moat of the public chain.
4. Storyline 2: Chain Abstraction—NEAR’s most underestimated weapon
The author has to write more about this part, because “chain abstraction” is a piece of meat that the entire market has not yet valued.
4.1 What is chain abstraction
Explain in vernacular:
The user says “I want a cup of coffee”, and you don’t care what kind of beans, what kind of machine, or who made the coffee that is served. Chain abstraction is what makes the blockchain like this.
In the past, Web3 worked the other way around: users had to switch wallets, change networks, pay gas, and sign authorization—every step “exposed the details of the chain.” Chain abstraction hides all these, leaving only one result.
4.2 How does NEAR’s Chain Signatures work?
NEAR releases Chain Signatures in 2024:
- An account on NEAR can directly control addresses on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana
- No need for users to additionally manage private keys
- The bottom layer uses MPC (multi-party computation) distributed signature
What does this mean? It means that you run an AI Agent on NEAR, which can help you transfer money on BTC, do swap on ETH, and buy memecoin on SOL. You do not need to sign manually in the whole process.
When the author first saw the NEAR team demonstrating this feature at Devcon in September 2024, I was immediately stunned – at that time, most L1s were still rolling out TPS, and NEAR had skipped doing things where “users don’t need to know the chain at all.”
4.3 Intents engine: turning “intention” into a transaction
Chain Signatures are the underlying capabilities, and Intents are the upper-layer protocols. The user expresses “what do I want”, and the Intents engine collects liquidity, finds the optimal path, and matches transactions.
The author takes a set of data from March 2026 as a case study:
- Daily matching transaction volume of NEAR Intents protocol: increased from $4.5 million to $18 million (March → May)
- Proportion of cross-chain transactions: 67%
- Average single transaction fee: $0.21 (compared to CEX cross-chain bridge $2-5)
This set of numbers is NEAR’s real moat. Other AI L1s can tell stories, but not many can tell real-life data.
4.4 Why is Chain Abstraction particularly important to AI Agent?
The core pain point of AI Agent is “combined operation”:
- The user said “Help me exchange ETH for JUP on SOL at the lowest cost”
- Agent needs to: determine the best bridge (cross-chain) → determine the best DEX (transaction) → sign → wait for confirmation → rollback on failure
If users are required to participate in every step, the agent is not an agent, but a “human customer service with a microphone.” Chain abstraction covers all of these, and Agent can truly help users save time and money.
This is NEAR’s trump card. This is also the core reason why I am optimistic that this rebound can go far.
5. Story line three: “L1 survivor” revalued by institutions
5.1 NEAR’s “survivor” status
In the 2021-2022 bull market, there have been too many stories on the L1 track – Solana, Avalanche, Luna, Fantom, Near… all on the same starting line. By May 2026, L1, which has survived until now, is still updating the main network, and is still expanding its users, will only be left:
- Solana (Top 7)
- TON (Top 20)
- Near (Top 50)
- Sui (Top 23)
- ICP (Top 50)
- Aptos (Top 60)
Luna died, Fantom changed its name (Sonic), and Avalanche AVAX has not come back after falling 80%. Survival itself is value.
The author has reviewed and found that institutions’ valuation logic for L1 in 2026 has changed: they no longer look at TPS, but look at three things:
- Are there any real users (not brushing)?
- Is there an original narrative (not copying someone else’s)?
- Is there any long-term funding support (not relying on retail investors)?
NEAR can hit all three:
- Daily active wallet address: 4.7 million (May 2026)
- Native narrative: AI-native L1 (I mentioned it myself, not copied it)
- Long-term funds: NEAR Foundation, a16z, and Multicoin are among the first batch of investors
5.2 Why institutions buy now
CoinDesk’s May 12 article “Bitcoin’s bull-bear cycle indicator turns green for first time since March 2023” is a signal. The author himself is also tracking this indicator – it coincides with the wave in March 2023 and the wave in October 2024.
The meaning of Cycle indicator turns green: Risk aversion sentiment loosens, risky assets begin to be allocated, and non-BTC assets may outperform the market.
Who should institutional funds turn to at this time? Not looking for BTC (already rising), not looking for ETH (beta is too high), not looking for Meme (too crazy), but looking for L1 that has been falling for a long time, has improving fundamentals, and has a clear narrative**.
NEAR is that target.
5.3 Clues of institutional positions
Several large on-chain tracking tools (Arkham, Nansen) that the author is following have marked NEAR large buy orders in the past week:
- May 7: A “smart money” label address bought 2.5 million NEAR
- May 9: Three institutional addresses increased their holdings at the same time, totaling 5 million coins.
- May 12: Coinbase Custody’s hot wallet receives 1.8 million coins
These data require cross-validation and cannot be 100% reliable, but the direction is consistent. And from the perspective of volume and energy structure (OTC sweepers usually buy all the money in depth first and then return to the market to buy), it can also be matched.
5.4 Will the ETF narrative take over?
The author will add another point that has not been fully discussed in the market – Copycat ETF Narrative. In the first quarter of 2026, the SEC has approved spot ETF applications for SOL, XRP, and HYPE. The market generally expects that the next wave will be the turn of the Top 50 “old L1”. NEAR, ICP, and Aptos are all potential targets.
Although the probability of NEAR’s spot ETF being approved in the short term (before Q3 of 2026) is not high, it is a very mature way for institutions to “ambush potential ETF targets in advance”. Four months before the SOL ETF was approved, institutional funds doubled SOL in advance. If NEAR follows this script, the current $1.67 is just the starting point.
The author emphasizes – This is an option, not a fundamental. The meaning of options is that if it happens, it will be a big benefit, and if it doesn’t happen, it will not affect the main logic. This shouldn’t be used as the main reason to buy, but it can be used as a plus point for “why it’s better to get in now than later.”
6. Technical aspect: $1.3 is the bottom and $1.67 is the current ceiling.
6.1 Support level
- Strong Support: $1.30 (May 6 low + multiple bottoms since May)
- Medium support: $1.45 (intensive transaction area at the end of April)
- Weak Support: $1.55 (I stepped on it once after reaching the site this week)
If it falls below $1.30, the author’s stop loss will be triggered directly without telling a story.
6.2 Resistance level
- Short-term resistance: $1.67 (near current price, today’s high)
- Medium-term resistance: $1.85 (starting point of decline in early March)
- Key Resistance: $2.20 (December 2025 high, a position that has not returned for half a year)
6.3 Form and energy
- The daily level has gone out of “bottom heavy volume + continuous positive line”
- The weekly level stands above the 20-week moving average
- The monthly level is still in the downward channel and has not been completely reversed.
Conclusion: Be bullish in the short term, cautious in the medium term, and see whether $2.20 can hold in the long term.
6.4 Trading volume confirmation
This rally was accompanied by a doubling in volume, which is important. Immeasurable increases are all fake increases – This is the iron rule that the author has summarized since he started trading in 2017. NEAR’s volume can cooperate very well this time, at least it is not a purely market trend.
The author’s habit is to do a simple verification of the relationship between volume and price: among the seven days from May 6 to May 13, there were five days when “the positive line + the volume could be greater than the previous day”, and two days when the “yang line + the volume could be the same”. There is no “shrinking increase” on one day. This is called “both volume and price” in the dictionary of technical experts, and it is one of the most reliable signals of bottom reversal.
6.5 Derivatives market signals
- Perpetual Contract Funding Rate: Flip from -0.03% (pay for shorts) on May 6 to +0.015% (pay for longs) on May 13, The time point of a long flip corresponds to the bottom reversal
- Contract open interest: increased from $120 million to $210 million, positions increased but funding rates did not become extreme, indicating that “new longs increased” rather than “old shorts were squeezed”
- The ratio of open interest to spot volume: stable between 0.35-0.4, no high leverage bubble
In one sentence: The derivatives market is confirming that this wave of buying is genuine and not a short squeeze. This is the first indicator that veterans should pay attention to when looking at the market – if the spot price rises but derivatives fail to keep up, it is a dead cat jump; if both sides are synchronized, it is a real start.
7. Risk warning: Don’t regard the rebound as the starting point of the bull market
At this point, I have to pour some cold water on it. I am optimistic about NEAR’s rebound, but I don’t think this is the starting point for its “return to $20”. There are several reasons:
7.1 Macro risks
- BTC has not yet broken through the key level of $85,000, currently $80,952
- U.S. stocks have been volatile recently, and the correlation coefficient between crypto and U.S. stocks is still above 0.7
- There will be an interest rate meeting by the Federal Reserve in May. If it is hawkish again, the risk-off sentiment will return.
7.2 Track risk
- There is a high probability that the AI narrative will diverge – not all AI coins can come out
- Solana’s AI Agent ecosystem (Eliza, GOAT, etc.) is still the strongest, and NEAR is only the “second echelon”
- If market funds are redirected to Solana, NEAR will be pumped again
7.3 Risks of the project itself
- The NEAR Foundation is unlocked every month, and long-term selling pressure cannot be ignored.
- Although Chain Abstraction is good, the actual user penetration rate is less than 5% (the author’s own estimate)
- Developer activity is not the first in the AI chain (compared to Solana and Base)
7.4 Emotional risks
- This kind of trend of 27% increase in 7 days is extremely common with a correction of 10%-15%
- Don’t get in after chasing highs—wait for a pullback to $1.50-$1.55 before looking.
8. The operating rhythm of ordinary people: three positions and three mentality
The author does not write “stud guides” – such things are a trap for ordinary people. But I can share three ideas for reference:
Idea 1: Wait-and-see type (not moving is the best)
Suitable for people: Don’t have NEAR, don’t follow hot spots, and don’t understand the AI track. Suggestion: Keep waiting and watching. If NEAR pulls back below $1.45, we will look at the technical aspects to decide whether to intervene. Don’t let your emotions lead you away.
Idea 2: Fixed investment type (steady and steady)
Suitable for people: Recognize the long-term value of the AI L1 track and have spare money on hand. Suggestion: Buy small positions every week. If the price is high, buy less, and if the price is low, buy more. Consider NEAR as part of the L1 combination of the AI track (cooperate with SOL, SUI, and ICP to diversify positions).
Idea 3: Band type (for those with experience)
Suitable for people: Have technical analysis foundation, can execute stop loss, and do not need financing. Recommendation: Open a position at the support level of $1.50-$1.55, stop loss at $1.28, first target $1.85, and second target $2.20. Positions should not exceed 10% of total funds.
The author’s own approach
To be honest, the author has not re-entered the market after stopping the 1% position at $1.32. It’s not because I’m bearish on NEAR, but because of my discipline – if the stop loss target is broken, I wait at least two weeks before I see if I re-enter the market. Currently waiting for a correction, we plan to start building positions in batches near $1.50, with a maximum position limit of 5%.
Imitation is not recommended. This is my rhythm, you have yours.
Several common pitfall postures
Here are a few more common mistakes made by novices, hoping you can avoid them:
- Chasing the highest point: When I saw “27% increase in 7 days”, I rushed in, and ended up buying at the top of the stage. The correct approach is to wait for callback confirmation**.
- Treat short-term rebounds as long-term holdings: This round of rebounds is a technical + narrative resonance, which does not mean NEAR has entered a bull market. To dynamically adjust your mentality.
- No stop loss: Veteran traders all set stop losses, but novices don’t. This is the most expensive tuition fee for retail investors.
- Heavy position in a single currency: Even if you are optimistic about NEAR, do not exceed 10%-15% of the total position. Dispersion is the only way to hedge against the unknown.
- Use leverage to create swings: The crypto market itself has already fluctuated by more than 10% per day. Adding leverage is a recipe for loss. Spot priority.
9. FAQ
Q1: Will NEAR rise back to $20? A: Not in the short term. To get back $20 requires a full take-off of the AI narrative + a new high in BTC + the emergence of “hot apps” in the NEAR ecosystem. At present, none of the three things are in place.
Q2: Which one should I choose, NEAR or SUI? A: SUI has a large market value, good liquidity, and its narrative is more “high-performance L1”; NEAR has a small market value, great flexibility, and its narrative is more “AI native”. If you are optimistic about the accelerated differentiation of the AI track, NEAR has more option value.
Q3: Where can I buy NEAR? A: Mainstream CEXs (OKX, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken) are available. For DEX, there is Ref Finance in the NEAR ecosystem, and cross-chain bridges can be used on other chains. Newbies are advised to go directly to CEX.
Q4: Can I pledge NEAR? A: Yes. NEAR is a PoS chain, and the annual pledge rate is about 5-7%. CEX’s pledge financing usually has an annualized rate of about 4%. The technical threshold for running a validator yourself is relatively high. Ordinary people recommend using CEX or a liquidity staking protocol such as MetaPool.
Q5: Can NEAR’s Chain Abstraction really be used? A: It can be used, but the penetration rate is low. NEAR Intents and Chain Signatures are both on the mainnet, with an average daily cross-chain matching of $18 million (May data). But there is still a long way to go before “everyone is using it”.
Q6: If I enter now for $1.67, will the order be accepted? A: There is a probability. With this 7-day rise of 27%, a correction of 10% is normal. It is recommended to wait for the $1.50-$1.55 support level before entering. Or fixed investment average cost.
Q7: What is the difference between this AI market and last time (2024)? A: Last time it was Application Narrative (FET, AGIX, OCEAN), relying on the imagination of “what will happen to AI Agents”; this time it is Infrastructure Narrative (NEAR, ICP, Sonic), which is supported by actual TVL, actual active addresses, and actual revenue. Higher gold content.
Q8: What will happen to NEAR if BTC falls below $75,000? A: There is a high probability of following the decline. A correlation coefficient of 0.7 means that if BTC falls by 10%, NEAR may fall by 15%-20%. This is the beta risk of the entire crypto market. The fundamentals of a single currency cannot withstand the macroeconomics.
Q9: Is the NEAR team reliable? A: Co-founder Illia Polosukhin is one of the co-authors of the Transformer paper (“Attention Is All You Need”) – a true elder in the AI circle. Alex Skidanov is also a former Google engineer. The team background is the least controversial part of NEAR.
Q10: What should I do if I get trapped? A: Don’t scold yourself first. Let’s ask three questions first:
- Is the logic behind the original purchase still there? (AI narrative, chain abstraction, team)
- What was the initial budgeted position? (If the position is overstocked, it will be reduced)
- How long can you wait? (Let’s talk about “long term” after three years or more)
If you can answer all three questions, continue to hold. If you can’t answer it, reduce your position to a position where you feel comfortable.
10. Conclusion
When the author wrote this article, the time was 10 am on May 13, 2026, Beijing time. NEAR just stood at $1.67, up 10% in 24 hours and 27% in 7 days.
After writing this article, look back at this week’s market trends: TON (up 80% last week), SUI (up 25% on Monday), VVV (up 89% this week), NEAR (up 10% today) – this is not an isolated incident. This is the complete chain of AI narrative spreading from the application layer to the infrastructure layer.
The veteran’s experience is: The first wave of rise is a story, the second wave of rise is FOMO, and the third wave of rise is a bubble. Where is NEAR now? The end of the first wave and the beginning of the second wave. This is the author’s judgment.
But judgment is judgment, and position management is more important than judgment**. You were right, but the position was too heavy, and you would be shaken off as soon as there was a correction; you were wrong, but the position was small, and it wouldn’t hurt even if it returned to zero.
There are no permanent winners in the crypto market, only those who live longer. Hope this article can help you.
Preview of the next article: The author will continue to track the subsequent trend of the AI L1 sector. If there is a new hot spot tomorrow, I will update it as soon as possible.
Risk warning
- This article does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may go to zero.
- Please make independent judgments when making any decisions, control your positions, and act within your capabilities.
- The author holds a variety of crypto assets and does not mean to recommend any specific project.
- Remember the old saying: Play until you can afford to lose.
Extended reading (must read for newbies)
- OKX exchange registration tutorial (including identity verification and deposit guide)
- A Complete Guide to Getting Started with Coin Trading for Beginners (2026 Edition)
- Cryptoasset Security Guide: Cold Wallets, Mnemonic Phrases, Anti-Phishing
- Getting Started with Web3: The Complete Path from Wallet to On-Chain Operations
Data source
- CoinGecko – NEAR Protocol real-time quotes
- CoinDesk – Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turns green (2026-05-12)
- DefiLlama – NEAR ecological TVL data
- NEAR Official Document – Chain Abstraction & Intents
- Arkham Intelligence – Tracking large players on NEAR chain
This article is an original in-depth draft by Cryptoedu.shop. Please indicate the source when reprinting.